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The All-Star break is upon us. After a first 20 games of the WNBA season that had their fair share of highs and lows for the Lynx, players and coaches will enjoy a solid week to rest, recover, enjoy All-Star festivities and prepare both mentally and physically for what is going to be a dead sprint to the finish in an extremely competitive WNBA.

So where does Minnesota stand?

Having played 20 games this season, the Lynx are dead even at .500 sitting at 10-10. They are 6-5 at home and 4-5 on the road. However, it has been more of a season of runs than a consistent, even march to their current record.

Minnesota started off by winning four of their first five games. Then they lost four in a row including three at home. That was undoubtedly the low-point of the season thus far. But the team rebounded! They won five of their next six games including a critical win over the Connecticut Sun and it looked like their struggles were over. But things derailed again over the last few weeks. The Lynx head into the break having lost four of their last five.

It is not easy to analyze the Lynx because of their lack of consistency. They don’t look like the same team every single night. When they are clicking, they are clearly one of the best teams in the league—a chaos-creating defensive force backed up by an inside out punch from one of the best two-way duos in the league in Sylvia Fowles and Odyssey Sims. Those two are surrounded by a group of athletic, versatile and competitive players many of whom can play multiple positions. They are incredibly difficult to play against.

On the off nights, the Lynx have a hard time moving the ball, they let mental errors impede what physically should be a very good defense and they are oddly bad on the boards considering how many good individual rebounders they have on the squad. The trick going forward is going to be figuring out how to get the first version of this team every night and keep the second version in the locker room, or even better, out of the building entirely.

The positive thing is that even though the Lynx are at .500 right now, their team stats paint a picture of a team whose win totals are too low given their level of play, not too high. They hold the fifth best net rating in the league thanks to a top-four defense and an offense that is holding at about league average. Their rebounding percentage is also very good across the board—top three in defensive, offensive and total rebounding percentage. The Lynx do not rank well in total rebounds, but that is probably because they’re not very good at forcing missed shots. Their best defensive possessions tend to result in opposing turnovers—they are the second-best team in the league at forcing giveaways. The Lynx also have a well-documented problem with holding onto the ball themselves which allows far too many transition opportunities to their opponents.

So, let’s talk about those turnovers. The good news is that the Lynx’s transition defense is good—given how much they turn the ball over they rank fairly well in preventing points off turnovers and fast break points. The Lynx are competitive. They don’t take mistakes lightly and always try to win the next possession after they mess one up. The bad news is the Lynx are turning the ball over 16.6 times per game on average. That is simply too high. They are shooting their very good defense in the foot by giving opposing offenses extra possessions.

The Lynx tend to turn the ball over most when trying to force the ball inside to Fowles. When their offense stalls it makes sense that they look to their best player to make something happen for them. The problem is opposing teams know what is coming and have figured out how to intercept a lot of those passes.

All that is a very macro look at the season thus far but there are a few things that are worth going into detail on. There’s a lot of ball left to be played, so I’m straining to avoid overreactions, but a few things are for sure.

The Injuries Matter

Oddly absent from the popular narrative of this Lynx season is the extent to which injuries have played a role in the team’s success.

Things got off on a bad note when standout rookie Jessica Shepard tore her ACL just six games into the season. That loss hurt. Shepard was playing a big role for the Lynx off the bench as a tenacious defender and rebounder with a real knack for facilitating. She was averaging 4.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game when she went down. Though she is young and in good hands and should be able to bounce back well next season, the injury left the Lynx without a player who contributed more than 18 minutes per game at a position of real need.

In addition to Shepard, fellow forward Karima Christmas-Kelly was shut down for the season last month as complications arose in her recovery from a micro-fracture surgery she had last season. While Christmas-Kelly never really worked her way back into a full-time role for the Lynx, Minnesota got a glimpse of what she could have become in a few games and it does leave you thinking ‘What if…’ Christmas-Kelly is a great defender who gets into the lane going downhill on offense and is extremely difficult to stop. She is also a floor spacer. Though she didn’t find her shot in a real way in limited time this season, she is a career 32.2 percent three-point shooter. That would have helped.

To make matters worse at the forward position, Damiris Dantas, an early standout for the team, missed almost a month with a calf injury, only just returning to the team in their last two games.

This is all leaving out Seimone Augustus—definitely the biggest absence for the Lynx. Though her absence comes with the understanding she has been a vocal locker room leader for the team and has been at every practice, the Lynx miss her size, defensive positioning, ability to create instant offense and veteran leadership on the court. Augustus’ prime is behind her, but she is still very capable of playing a role on a good team. It will be interesting to see when the Lynx bring her back and what her role is when they do.

While the injuries that the Lynx have faced have afforded some other players the opportunity to step up and many have risen to the occasion, the lost flexibility of having a few key contributors on the bench has been difficult for Minnesota.

Napheesa Collier Is For Real

If you had to pick one major takeaway from this season it is that Napheesa Collier is going to have a long future in the WNBA. At this point, she has to be the prohibitive favorite for Rookie of the Year, having just been named to the WNBA All-Star team as a rookie. Oddly enough, she has never been named Rookie of the Month, but that makes sense in its own right. Collier’s biggest asset is her versatility and her consistency. She might not be the flashiest scorer, but she does what needs to be done and competes hard on every single possession.

On the season, Collier is averaging 11.2 points per game and adding 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.9 blocks. She has also added a three-point shot and is shooting a very serviceable 32 percent from deep. This is from a player who, before the draft, was considered one who would not be a deep threat at all at the next level. Collier plays both the three and four for the Lynx and acts as the glue that holds much of what the Lynx do together. That is a lot of pressure for a rookie, but Collier has taken everything in stride. Much has been made of her ability to remain unphased when asked to do new things or when something goes wrong, but perhaps not enough has been made of how Collier has ceaselessly worked on every element of her game in order to be able to do so much right away at the pro level.

Collier still has room to grow, too. While her offensive game is solid, it is unrefined. She needs to tighten her handle up in order to get better at creating off the perimeter. She could also do to refine her shooting mechanics a bit, though they are miles better from when she came into training camp. It is obvious that the Lynx got a steal in the draft in Collier and she has thrived in head coach Cheryl Reeve’s system. If the Lynx lose the rest of their games (they won’t) this season will be able to be considered somewhat of a success because of Collier’s development—she’s that good.

Odyssey Sims Was Meant To Be A Lynx

Speaking of unexpected but pleasant surprises, it feels like Sims was born to be a member of the Minnesota Lynx. The physical guard has thrived both at the helm of the Lynx offense and off the ball playing next to Danielle Robinson. As the season has gone on, her grasp of Minnesota’s system and her chemistry with Fowles have both increased exponentially.

Sims is averaging 14.7 points per game (leading the team) and adding a career-high 5.3 assists and 3.6 rebounds. The freedom that Reeve has given her has paid off. After a career-worst year last season with the Los Angeles Sparks, Sims is thriving. While it might be as unusual to Sims as anyone else that it is with the Lynx that she is playing the best ball of her career, there’s no doubt that she deserves her first career All-Star nod.

As Sims goes, so do the Lynx. She truly drives the Lynx offense forward. Sims has a unique ability to break defenses down and create opportunities both for herself and others. Though Reeve wants her to look to score, the amount of pressure Sims puts on the defenses inevitably open things up for the players around her—especially Fowles and the collection of three-point shooters the Lynx station around the arc. Sims has found a fit here both in system and in culture and the Lynx would not be where they are now without her.

Trends To Watch

As we head into the last third of the season, here’s what Lynx fans need to keep an eye out for:

Lexie Brown’s minutes: Brown has rejuvenated her career here in Minnesota. Though she struggled through a midseason slump she is back in form now. She has scored 19+ points in two of her last three games and has gone 17-for-30 from the field in that span including 50 percent three-point shooting. Reeve said that Brown could expect more minutes after the break, but where those minutes will come from remains to be seen. Brown is more than a shooter—she has a crafty pull-up game and she’s a solid defender as well who keeps her feet where they need to be at all times. She might work her way into more of an even timeshare with Sims and Robinson in the latter part of the season.

Sylvia Fowles’ defense: The Lynx defend the paint extremely well and that is almost entirely due to Fowles (all due respect to Collier). Fowles’ offensive production is down this year—likely as a result of changes in how the paint is being officiated across the WNBA—but she’s as solid a defender as she’s ever been. With her patrolling the paint opponents are far more likely to settle for jumpers instead of pushing for higher-percentage looks inside. Fowles was extremely underrated on defense last season, failing to make the All-Defense team despite finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting (odd, I know). This year she should certainly be back in the conversation for All-Defense if not DPOY.

Temi Fagbenle’s development: It’s been a bit of a rough transition for Fagbenle, rejoining the Lynx after an incredible EuroBasket outing. However, Fagbenle remains very important to what the Lynx want to do and they will invest time and energy into getting her comfortable and playing well. Fagbenle’s mobility and post scoring skills allow her to play either the four or the five and will help provide a boost on both ends for the Lynx when she returns to WNBA form.

The Lynx return to action on August 2, but you can watch Sims, Collier and Fowles in All-Star action in the skills challenge on Friday at 6 p.m. and the game on Saturday at 2:30. It should be an exciting homestretch this season—there’s no reason the Lynx can’t be a very, very good team. They just need to put the final pieces in place.

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